Outlook 2022

Annual Report

The following external factors may have a material impact on the operations of the Bank’s Group in 2022:

  • development of the pandemic, including the spread of a very contagious variant, Omicron observed at the beginning of the year; effectiveness and progress of the vaccination programme, as well as the infectivity and virulence of subsequent coronavirus mutations;
  • reaction of the global economy to the even more universal process of tightening fiscal policy, including probably relatively quick and numerous interest rate increases in the USA;
  • possible easing of supply constraints in the second half of the year (shortages of production components, high level of energy commodity prices), which currently exacerbate the cost pressure and limit the pace and scale of economic revival;
  • difficulties in the global trade related to maintaining the “zero COVID” policy in China, which particularly affected the main ports in Asia;
  • effective functioning of the European gas and CO2 emission allowances market;
  • potential concerns about stagflation and maintaining an increased level of inflation worldwide and in Poland;
  • the political and economic conditions in Ukraine, significant risk of increased tension in relations with Russia, not only Ukraine-Russia, but also EU/USA – Russia;

and relating to the Polish economy:

  • the scale and path of changes in the NBP interest rates and level of mandatory reserve;
  • effectiveness as well as scope and timing of the Government’ inflation-reducing programmes, and also impact of the prices increases (which is the fastest in the last 20 years) on the real consumer spending and propensity to use savings;
  • reaction of the household sector to the increased level of NBP rates, including the structure of demand for loans and ability to service already existing liabilities;
  • weakening of the demand for loans on the part of households, including mortgage loans and maintaining the upward trend of demand for corporate financing, which will be accompanied by a deposit volume which is still above the norm;
  • possible further court rulings in respect of currency mortgage loans, which may also impact the level of interest in the settlements programme;
  • availability of funds which are to be the basis for the implementation of the National Development Programme;
  • developments in the housing properties market and demand for housing loans, including likely weaker speculative/investment demand for housing due to NBP interest rate increases;
  • implementation of the “Polski Ład” programme, including tax changes which will affect tax settlements of households and enterprises, and “Mieszkanie bez wkładu własnego” (“Housing loans without initial contribution”) which will increase the availability of mortgage loans for lower-income households;
  • lowering the limits for non-interest costs of consumer loans (fees and commissions), and higher capital requirements for lending institutions as part of the planned “anti-usury” regulations;
  • growing regulatory costs of the Bank Guarantee Fund, which have a direct impact on lower results in the banking sector.

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